Individual risks of death in armed conflicts in the regions of the world (2015–2024)

Relevance. The militarization of a number of countries and the number of armed conflicts in the world are not decreasing, which necessitates the development of programs to curb armed violence and improve the safety of the population in a number of countries.

The aim is to study the risks of deaths in armed conflicts in the regions of the world, which can be extrapolated to sanitary losses and optimize the elimination of consequences.

Methods. We have studied 6 scientific projects that index the consequences of armed conflicts in the world. Deaths by category (combatants, civilians, unidentified persons) were obtained from the UCDP/PRIO database on armed conflicts [https://ucdp.uu.se/]. The number and types of armed conflicts (state, non-state and «unilateral violence») were specified on the electronic resource War and Peace [https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace]. Knowing the number of the world’s population and regions that you have received on the site [https://countrymeters.info /] calculated the individual risks of death in armed conflicts per 1 million people of the population (10^-6). Acceptable (conditionally acceptable risk) is data that differs by ¹/₃ from the global average, optimal – less than ¹/₃ of the average value, high (unacceptable) – more than ¹/₃. The dynamics of the indicators were presented in the form of polynomial trends of the 2nd order with the calculation of the coefficient of determination, the threshold of significance of which was 0.5.

The results and discussion. In 10 years (2015-2024), 1.754 armed conflicts were registered in the world, in which 1 million 489.3 thousand people died, of which 53 conflicts occurred in Europe, 284 in Asia, 305 in the Middle East, 998 in Africa, 320 conflicts in America with the deaths of 258 thousand, 211, 364, 529 and 127 thousand people, respectively. The average annual individual risk of death in all armed conflicts in the world was 19.27 ∙ 10^-6 deaths/(person ∙ year), in state conflicts – 15.32 ∙ 10^-6, in non–state conflicts – 2.76 ∙ 10^-6 deaths/(person ∙ year). There is a tendency of increasing risks in the dynamics. The high risk of death in all conflicts was 78.94 ∙ 10^-6 deaths/(person ∙ year) in the Middle East, 40.33 ∙ 10^-6 in Africa and 34.41 ∙ 10^-6 in Europe, 4.53 ∙ 10^-6 in Asia and 12.54 ∙ 10^-6 deaths/(person ∙ year) in America. A similar qualitative gradation was observed with the risks of death of combatants, for example, the risk in the Middle East was 46.92 ∙ 10^-6, in Africa – 30.64 ∙ 10^-6, in Europe – 28.53 ∙ 10^-6, in Asia – 3.91 ∙ 10^-6 and in America – 0.36 ∙ 10^-6 deaths/(person ∙ year). The risks of civilian deaths in the regions of the world correlated with the acceptable gradation, with the exception of the Middle East, where risk indicators approached the upper limit of the conditionally acceptable – 23.36 ∙ 10^-6 deaths/(person ∙ year). There is a multidirectional trend of risks in the regions. The reasons for the expressed risks in the regions have been clarified.

Conclusion. The death of the population can be extrapolated to sanitary losses and, thus, to refine the forces and means of disaster medicine in regions (countries) to eliminate the consequences of armed conflicts.

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