Regional risks in emergencies in Russia (2009–2013)

Over 5 years (2009–2013) 1855 emergency situations (ES) were registered in Russia, in which 3658 people were killed and 333,200 people were injured. There were 1022 (55.1 %) man-made disasters, 584 (31.5 %) natural ES, 207 (11.1%) biological and social ES, and 42 (2.3 %) terrorist attacks. Among them, 918 ES (49.4%) occurred at the local level, 721 (38.9 %) were municipal, 93 (5.0 %) – intermunicipal, 107 (5.8 %) – regional, 7 (0.4 %) – interregional, and 9 (0.5 %) – federal ones. Most ES occurred in Siberia, Volga and Southern federal districts (FD); most of the deaths were reported in the Central, Volga and Siberian FD, the number of injured was the greatest in the Far East, Volga and Southern FD. The positive relationship was established between the number of man-made disasters and regional gross domestic product as a percentage (r = 0.76; p < 0.05). In Russia, there is a low consistency between the number of emergencies and ES deaths (r = 0.33; p> 0.05), which served as the basis for calculating risk indicators. The risk of being in ES (R1) in Russia amounted to (0.259 ± 0.019) ESs per 100 thousand persons per year, or (0.259 ± 0.019) · 10–5. The risk of death in 1 ES (R2) in Russia was (2.01 ± 0.17) fatalities per year. Individual risk of death in ES (R3) was (0.511 ± 0.031) deaths per 100 thousand of Russian population per year, or (0.511 ± 0.031) · 10–5. R3 parameter has decreased. For example, in the previous five years (2004–2008) it was higher (0.752 ± 0.070) · 10–5, p <0.001. The optimum, acceptable and unacceptable risks for FD and specific regions of Russia were calculated. Favorably risk indicators were established in the Central FD and the relatively favorable ones – in the Northwestern FD of Russia. Risk indicators allow EMERCOM employees to predict and prevent ESs in the regions and disaster medicine specialists – to calculate the forces and means for the elimination of medical consequences.

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