Indicators of population safety and country involvement in armed conflicts worldwide (2014–2023)

Relevance. Given the unstable geopolitical situation in the world, there is a need to clarify international indicators that reflect the safety of living conditions for the populations across countries.

The objective is to analyze the involvement of countries in armed conflicts and the safety of their populations using the Global Peace Index (GPI) and its components over the decade from 2014 to 2023.

Methods. We studied world data on armed conflicts, their casualty rates, and economic costs provided by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Obtained for over a decade, Global Peace Index data and their components were analyzed for 162 countries, based on annual reports published by researchers of the Institute for Economics & Peace. Due to high political sensitivity, data for Russia were not analyzed. We tested the data for normality distribution using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. Arithmetic means and standard errors (M ± m) were taken in account as well. Trends were evaluated using time series analysis and second–order polynomial trend modeling.

Results and analysis. According to UCDP/PRIO, from 2014 to 2023, a total of 538 armed conflicts and wars were recorded globally. Those include 19 (3.5%) interstate and 519 (96.5%) intrastate conflicts. These conflicts and wars resulted approximately 1.479 million deaths, including 1,011,600 combatants (68.3%), 235,900 civilians (16%), and 231,700 unidentified individuals (15.7%). A trend towards increase was noted in both the number of conflicts and fatalities. The economic costs associated with preventing, mitigating, and responding to violence globally totaled 153.6 trillion USD. Those include 42.4% of military expenditures and 28.8% of domestic security spending. The average annual cost was $15.4 ± 0.6 trillion, accounting for 12.2 ± 0.3% of global GDP and 2,024.2 USD ± 58.2 per capita. Over the decade, 22.1% of countries improved their involvement in ongoing internal and external armed conflicts; 69.3% experienced deterioration; public safety and security improved in 66.9% of countries and worsened in 29.4%; militarization improved in 15.3% and worsened in 70.6%. The distribution of countries by GPI rating was: 8.6% for very high peace level countries; 29.1% high; 40.1% medium; 14.2% low; and 8.0% very low. GPI improvements were observed in 43% of countries, declines in 52.1%, and mixed trends in 4.9%.

Conclusion. There is a noticeable trend of declining Global Peace Index score, increased militarization, and growing economic costs associated with violence prevention. These findings may help improve policies and programs aimed at enhancing population safety in various countries.

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