Rapid response strategies to sanitary and epidemiological emergencies in Russian Federation regions considering particular epidemiological scenarios (in case of cholera outbreaks)

Relevance. Currently, cholera poses a serious external infection risk for the Russia. Any region of Russia is at risk of cholera infestation/importation, while importation events shall be considered as a real threat to the sanitary and epidemiological wellbeing of the population. Every Russian region is characterized by a set of individual factors and conditions affecting cholera infection risks, as well as preparedness of medical and testing lab capacities. In such environment, every region of Russia is in critical need of region-specific stochastic epidemiological forecasting is critically demanded in the case of cholera infestation importation. Ability to select a most efficient rapid response strategy in every forecasted scenario is no less relevant.

The study objective is to use the developed epidemiological risk assessment score for cholera infestation/importation in individual regions of Russia to eventually establish the probability for each of the three potential epidemiological scenarios, as well as to guide scenario-specific rapid response strategies.

Methodology. Epidemic risk assessment score for cholera infestation/importation in Russia was developed based on region-specific quantitative evaluation of the potential epidemiological risk at public mass events and the overall epidemiological capacity in case of cholera exposure. Modifications included ranking the sets of assessment score indicators by cholera epidemiological risk exposure with a few extra sets of indicators, such as region-specific product output, economic factors, emergency incidence rate and scope of consequences. Stochastic scenarios are based on retrospective data analyzing the links between the initial epidemiological risk factors, preparedness of medical and laboratory services, and real country specific data regarding the development of the epidemiological situation amid cholera outbreaks.

Results and discussion. The study develops a region-specific epidemiological risk assessment score for cholera infestation/importation for Russian Federation regions to provide an insight into the impacts of epidemiological risk factors and counter-epidemic preparedness capacities of every region, considering the implementation of each of the three potential epidemiological situation scenarios (negative, limited spreading, and favorable). The paper elaborates strategies and solutions to provide efficient rapid response in case of either scenario.

Conclusion. The developed epidemiological risk assessment score for cholera infestation/importation in individual regions of Russia allows to evaluate the probability for each of the three epidemiological scenarios in a particular region depending on the total score, as well as to select most efficient scenario-specific rapid response strategies.

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